Coastal impacts
Climate change scenarios including sea level rise, increased frequency and severity of storms, and changes in rainfall patterns are likely to increase the risk of severe coastal inundation, and erosion. There is also likely to be significant changes to estuarine ecosystems, water quality and hydrodynamics. In NSW, the value of coastal properties at risk from coastal erosion/inundation is conservatively estimated to be worth $1 billion over a one hundred-year planning period. The many estuaries along the coastline provide a priceless natural resource from an ecological, social and economic perspective.
Adaptation is now recognised as a necessary strategy to complement ongoing mitigation efforts. However, despite this growing awareness of climate change impacts on the coastal zone, a systematic study of climate change impacts on the NSW coastline and estuaries has not been undertaken to date. Importantly, the vulnerability of varied coastal systems to the likely range of climate change impacts remains ill defined. The costs associated with potential coastal erosion, inundation, and the degradation of estuaries due to climate change and/or the cost/benefit of any adaptation responses to climate change impacts cannot be evaluated in the absence of such a systematic study.
DECC is undertaking research that takes an initial step towards addressing this knowledge gap.
The overarching objective of the research is to assess the environmental and economic impact of potential coastal erosion, coastal inundation and degradation of estuaries due to climate change in coastal NSW. This will be undertaken by:- Defining climate change driven low-, mid-, high-, and probable maximum (PM) level environmental impact events at two representative NSW estuary/beach systems for both a 25 and 75 year planning horizons;
- Quantitatively estimating the coastal and estuarine impacts (e.g. coastal erosion, coastal inundation, estuarine flushing, eutrophication, modification of estuary entrances) due to climate change driven low-, mid-, high-, and PM level impact events at the two representative study sites;
- Estimating the economic impact due to the coastal and estuarine impacts quantified above at the two representative study sites;
- Developing and evaluating options for adopting low, moderate and high-cost climate change adaptation responses for climate change driven low-, medium-, high- and PM level environmental impact events at the two case study sites;
- Extrapolating the generic outcomes (coastal and estuarine) to other coastal regions of NSW; and
- Using the information generated to develop adaptation policy responses for the NSW coastal zone.
For more information
A Preliminary Assessment of the Coasal Impacts Resulting from Climate Change - Dr Roshanka Ranasinghe (PDF 385kb). Presentation of research at the NSW Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Summit - 23 February 2007. Objectives: quantifying climate change driven physical and economic impacts on NSW beaches and estuaries; investigating adaptation strategies.